Analyzing Possible Shifts and Outcomes
Pondering Acquittal
The impending impeachment trial of Philippine Vice President Sara Duterte, scheduled to commence in late July, represents a pivotal moment in the nation’s political landscape. With charges ranging from corruption to plotting the assassination of President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., First Lady Liza Marcos, and Speaker of the House Martin Romualdez, her acquittal—requiring at least nine of the 24 Senate votes—would reshape the dynamics of Philippine politics in heretofore unseen ways. What are the likely consequences of her acquittal, considering the interplay of dynastic power, public sentiment, and international relations?
Strengthening of the Duterte Dynasty
An acquittal would certainly solidify Sara Duterte’s position, enhancing her eligibility for the 2028 presidential race. The Duterte family’s enduring influence, particularly in the South, could see a resurgence, bolstered by recent midterm election successes of allies like Bong Go and Ronald Dela Rosa. Public sympathy, potentially amplified by her father Rodrigo Duterte’s ICC arrest, might further galvanize support. This outcome could position her as a formidable contender, reigniting the Duterte dynasty’s political ambitions and challenging the Marcosphere’s current dominance.
Escalation of Marcos-Duterte Tensions
An acquittal would likely deepen the feud between the Marcos and Duterte factions, intensifying political polarization. BBM, already facing pressure from allies who initiated the impeachment, might experience a weakened administration as the 2028 election approaches—his final year due to term limits. This division could disrupt legislative cohesion, with some viewing the acquittal as a public rebuke of Marcos’s governance, further complicating his political strategies.
Public Trust and Accountability
The trial’s high-profile nature has highlighted allegations of corruption, and an acquittal might erode public trust in institutional accountability. While it could fuel demands for greater transparency, it may also be perceived as a failure to address misuse of public funds, potentially stoking discontent. That having been said, it remains unknown what, if any, influence this would manifest during the 2028 election as flagrant evidence of corruption among known politicians has had little effect on voting tendencies in the past. The outcome may nevertheless shape narratives around governance, shaping voter behavior in future elections.
International implications
Sara Duterte’s foreign policy stance, notably her silence on China’s South China Sea actions, could come under renewed scrutiny. An acquittal might embolden her to assert a stronger voice, possibly aligning with her father’s pro-China legacy, contrasting with Marcos’s pro-US pivot. This could affect Philippines-U.S. relations and regional stability, particularly as tensions in the South China Sea persist.
Electoral and Senate Dynamics
The delay of the trial to post-midterm elections suggests senators may prioritize political survival, influencing their votes based on electoral fallout rather than evidence. With several Duterte-aligned senators now in power, the Senate’s composition could favor acquittal, stabilizing her faction temporarily. However, this could leave the political environment volatile, with dynastic tensions and shifting alliances determining future contests.
Domestic Instability?
Sara Duterte’s acquittal would likely strengthen the Duterte dynasty, escalate tensions with the Marcos camp, and challenge public trust in governance. Internationally, it could signal a shift in foreign policy alignments, while domestically it sets the stage for a contentious 2028 election. The Philippine political environment, already marked by dynastic rivalries, corruption, and violence, may enter a period of heightened instability, testing the resilience of its democratic institutions and threatening an already fragile economy.
