The very minute I heard, way back in 2017, that DU30, Rody, Digong, PRRD, Superman, P-Rod, Pigong (and – if you can believe it – “PDiggy”), etc., etc., etc., along with his former Oplan Tohkang Police Chiefs, Dabawenyo Ronald “Bato” Dela Rosa, and Kapampangan Oscar “Odie” / “Oca” Albayalde were being investigated by the International Criminal Court, it was a given in my mind that this might just portend the termination of what we today know as The Philippines. That it would take 8 years for the first arrest, unexpectedly of Duterte himself, to be made did not come as much of a surprise to someone who has over 5 decades of experience observing the place and its snail-paced, stuttering, archaic legal system.
During that time, I debated ad nauseum with local politicians, law colleagues and members of the elite class on likely scenarios that might be played out if arrest warrants were ever issued. The great majority insisted fervently that none of the three would ever actually wind up in Den Haag, aka. The Hague. For them, such thinking was an absolute non sequitur. A former Senator laughed out loud when I suggested the Philippine government of its own accord could offer the accused up to the Dutch, as had been the case with former Yugoslav President Slobodon Milosevic in 2001 under an ICC Precursor, the ICJ (International Court of Justice). “Over our dead bodies would we Filipinos ever allow foreigners to take our citizens,” was his huffy comment before storming away. I didn’t get the chance to tell him that had been the exact same sentiment expressed by the Serbian government when arrest warrants were delivered to Belgrade, and that within 6 months after international economic sanctions began to bite Milosevic was arrested by Serb police and taken to an airport near the capitol for loading onto a Luftwaffe C-130. His partners-in-genocide, Radko Vladic and Goran Hadzic, soon followed. In the case of Duterte, BBM, perhaps wisely, knew he couldn’t take the same risk.
At the time of this writing, FPRRD (“Former President Rodrigo Roa Duterte”) had already spent nearly a month in the Scheveningen Prison, rechristened with a more gentile moniker, “The Hague Penitentiary Institution”. His daughter and current Vice President, Sara, traveled to visit him along with a collection of supporters and former administration officials. They all appeared defiantly before political rally-style gatherings of OFWs holding vigil outside the facility in a park across the street constructed for that very purpose. Such public displays of emotion occurred in a few other countries, as well, but not tolerated in the same amicable, liberal Nederlander fashion. When a group of 20 OFWs formed an outdoor demonstration in Qatar, Emir Sheikh Tamim Ibn Hamad Al Thani promptly instructed his police to throw them all in jail, where they remained for 5 days and issued fines upon “provisional” release that were equivalent to around $10,000 USD each. Beyond that, they were told to remain in the country until their individual cases were adjudicated, which might result in more fines and potentially up to 3 years in prison. A few days later, the Emir granted full pardons to all of them. Filipino press outlets noted and lamented that none of the Qatari employers came to their aid. Go figure.
The 600-pound gorilla in the room now manifests itself in the form of VP Sara’s impending senate impeachment trial set sometime in July. Between now and then it is highly likely that both Bato and Odie will be in hiding or sitting in cells next to their former boss, thereby reducing lobbying “influence” among senators to mitigate a conviction. It remains to be seen, however, if the results of the May midterm elections will be affected by her Dad’s surprise arrest and extradition. Early polling suggests “Inday” may not have enough votes to avoid her ouster and ultimate retreat into Fortress Davao. If she somehow escapes the boot and the new House of Representatives composition deigns not to re-impeach her, many believe her chances of attaining the Presidency in 2028 are good. Conversely, should she be convicted and sent home, rumors of civil unrest have been heard bandied about, with the hordes of DDS (originally, “Davao Death Squad”, revised to “Diehard Duterte Supporters” for better national palatability after the 2016 elections) promising Mindanao-style retribution wreaked upon all within the BBM camp.
Once the schism reaches final fruition and the Davao Group is directed south for good, some international observers and analysts are looking at potential secession of a combined Del Norte and Del Sur from Imperial Manila, something that has been threatened numerous times in the past by Rody and other potentates like Chavit Singson of Ilocos Sur and BARMM’s Ahod Ebrahim Al Haj. While the palace and major business interests in the country scoff at such a notion, Dabawenyos on the street are in virtual unanimity that they would vote in favor of an independence move, IF and ONLY IF, it was made worth their collective while. A figure of two million pesos per head was seen online as an acceptable lump sum. With a combined population of 1.9 million, the amount needed to receive citizen backing would be around 3.8 trillion PHP, or just over 67 billion USD. But how in hell could that jaw-dropping number be funded, especially in a region boasting an anemic annual gross domestic product of only 1.3 billion USD?
In April of 2018, then President Rodrigo Duterte attended Beijing’s Boao Forum, stating, “if you don’t have money, you’re not my friend. So I go to China. Plenty of money.” Throughout the term, Xi Jinping sent crates of cash to DU30’s administration, not nearly as much as promised but enough to keep his “build-build-build” projects going until he was suddenly, unceremoniously left standing at the proverbial altar by the CCP in July 2020. Fast forward to 2023, a few weeks after hints of the inevitable clan rift between the Marcoses and Dutertes began raising its ugly head; Rody makes a surprise “friendly” visit to Xi Jinping that had not been discussed with prior to or sanctioned by BBM, who summoned his predecessor to Malacañang for an explanation, reportedly an unsatisfactory one.
There is considerable speculation as to what topics were discussed in Zhongnanhai (China’s equivalent to the White House), none the least of which was an alleged offer by Davao to host Chinese naval and air force installations in the event of secession. Striking a deal similar to the landmark Chinese military bases lease agreement with Cambodia’s Hun Sen 6 years earlier that guaranteed his family’s continued reign would be just the thing needed to ensure acquiescence from anyone thinking about hanging onto the loathed Tagalogs in the distant north. 15,000 PLA (Peoples’ Liberation Army) sailors and airmen with their considerable, advanced military hardware would provide the needed deterrent were BBM to think about taking the area back by force. Adding cinnamon atop the muffin, with the extra money left over from such a potential Sino-windfall, there wouldn’t be much left of the PNP (Philippine National Police) and AFP (Armed Forces of the Philippines) after perhaps 40% of their ranks would jump ship and move down to the Durian Republic, where salaries of 3-4 times higher than the pauper’s wages they have been forced to accept in the past were put on the table.
Disbelieving, shaking heads need only refer to the most recent precedent of nearby Brunei as a template for what might come to pass in Davao. When Sultan Omar Ali Saifuddien III decided he wanted to remain in power and not share his vast oil and gas holdings with the newly-created Malaysia in 1957, the British were invited to establish a protectorate in exchange for a century of BP (British Petroleum) exploration and extraction rights. Unwilling to stick their own necks out directly, the Malaysians funded a rebellion against the Bolkiahs that was quickly put down by the British military. Within 5 years, and after greasing palms using billions of Petro-Dollars inside the UN, Brunei gained full sovereignty. By 1988, it became its own Islamic Sultanate. 2000 British special forces troops remain garrisoned there yet today, just in case.
